Terrorism Citichat 8 February 2002

CITICHAT 5/2002 - 8 February 2002


Terrorism

The recently released Brookings Institution study I mentioned last week “The Potential Impacts of Recession and Terrorism on U.S.Cities” states that the implications of September 11 for cities are still unpredictable but offered the following speculations:

• Cities have a long history of rebuilding and reviving after natural and manmade disasters – if there is a long term impact of the terrorism attacks it will be the result of attitudinal changes not physical destruction.

• There will probably be very few buildings of 50 storeys or more erected in American cities for decades to come. But not necessarily just because of the attacks but because the World Trade Centre was not considered a commercial or aesthetic success and any replacement would be of a more mixed use nature and to a more human scale.

• The attack highlighted the importance of mass transit and redundant systems in an emergency.

• For large companies, concentrating key personnel in one location is risky and headquarters may be more decentralised in the future but probably both within a city or between a number of cities.

• Having back-up computer systems in diverse locations pays off and there will be renewed investment in back-up systems.

• Many companies have been moving back-office functions out of cities in recent years to take advantage of cheaper rents and whilst the fear of terrorism might reinforce such moves, the primary motivation will continue to be cost reduction.

• Terrorism-induced fear to air travel combined with rapidly improving technology for internet communication and video conferencing may slow the rate of growth of business travel and reduce the demand for business conferencing facilities.

• Diverse threats - biological, chemical, nuclear – will not necessarily prompt an exodus from cities. “Some people may feel safer in remote areas, which they believe will be less likely terrorist targets. Others may feel more vulnerable if they are farther from population centres and from the resources – such as expert medical care, highly trained police, fire and other public safety personnel – that might protect them in a city.”

The following are just some of the many practical issues that I noted from the various comments of private sector city practitioners/managers involved in the tragedies as well as from those of other cities.

There needs to be an emergency/catastrophe plan in place before the event!

Private sector organisations with security interests need to be involved in the city’s emergency services planning.

Memories are short and everyone quickly gets back into their comfort zones.

A public official’s most important job in an emergency is to reassure the public that they are in control. Authorities who can’t answer questions from the public heighten anxiety. (One city practitioner graphically described the state of the council in a particular large American city when it came to emergency planning as “all still tangled up in their underwear”).

Over-reaction has resulted in non-sustainable policies and procedures being put in place. (The question was posed as to whether the concrete barriers hastily erected around buildings were going o be removed if Bin Laden is apprehended!)

Some complex security procedures have been initiated and are then in the hands of low-paid security personnel poorly supervised.

The Dallas Improvement District maintains a roster of building managers, engineers and security directors to assist the city’s security authorities.

Building evacuation procedures have historically been confined to books on a shelf –now evacuation drills are the order of the day. (One of our major Johannesburg corporation recently held an emergency drill. They discovered that the city now uses ambulances that are higher than the traditional vehicles for which access to the building was designed. As a result, the ambulances couldn’t access the building!)

It is important that there is more than one way to get to work but more important that one can get home after an emergency. (In New York the first people to respond to the emergency were the transit authorities because they had well defined plans. Within two minutes of the first plane hitting the WTC, all trains carrying hundreds of thousands of commuters to the city were being turned around. In Washington DC, train commuters got home in the normal time, road commuters took five hours. Our local inner city transportation system is inadequate and this would be a good time to totally review public transportation. We are about to add a state of the art rapid rail system linking the city with Pretoria and the airport but our own internal city transportation is abysmal. What would happen in a catastrophe?)

Back-up computer systems in diverse locations are critical.

An issue that came out of the riots that accompanied some World Trade meetings as well as from natural disasters such as earthquakes was the need to ensure that communication systems can be kept working. One needs to choose a cell phone provider that has its transmission/repeater masts strategically located in ‘safe’ areas. E-mail facilities used for mass communication need to have alternate transmission points.

The secret is in Planning (sensible procedures sustainable over time); Practice and Partnering (the network is critical)

Lots of food for thought although some feel that the probability of a local disaster of such magnitude is remote. Interesting story in last week’s Mail and Guardian on the likelihood of a major earthquake hitting Johannesburg because of the extensive undermining and plans for new 5 kilometre deep mines!